The EU short-term outlook document has been released, and it predicts a decline in pig meat production by an additional 5% this year, following a decline of 5.6% in 2022.
These latest figures show the lowest production of pig meat in the EU for almost 10 years which is being attributed to the decline in the number of breeding sows across Europe. Some reports say that carcase weights may see a marginal increase as the price pressure on feed costs eases.
ASF
AHDB report that the number of cases of African Swine Fever on the continent is unlikely to be much different to those seen in 2022. However the situation will continue to trigger strong responses from affected countries and trading partners.
Supply
Supply levels will continue to support higher prices, which are currently at record levels. This will result in pig meat from the EU being less competitive on the global market. Further declines are expected to be seen in EU exports with the 16% decline in 2022 set to extend by a further 3% in 2023. The reduction in exports last year was largely down to a 50% reduction in shipping to China, despite growth in other regions.
Domestic consumption in the EU fell to 31.8kg per capita in 2022 and is forecast to decline further to around 30kg per capita in 2023. This decline, paired with reduced UK production, indicates an increase of only 2% for EU pig meat imports in 2023.
UK
For the UK pork industry, this outlook may provide opportunities for both the domestic and export markets. As EU pork prices lose their advantage to the UK, it may lead to a higher market share of domestic products being made available at retail. It may also lead to other countries considering the UK when sourcing pork imports, rather than the EU, although this may be limited by forecasted increase in production in other major exporters.