EU pigmeat production is expected to decrease by 0.5% in 2024, and by a further 0.2% next year, following a bigger decline in 2023, according to the latest forecast from the European Commission.
This is despite a 1.7% year-on-year increase in pigmeat production in the first half of 2024, driven mainly by a 9% increase in Poland.
The increase in EU supply, combined with limited demand led to a decline in domestic prices from May 2024, although the average remained significantly above the 5-year average. However, as both feed and piglet prices decreased, margins remained ‘reasonably positive’ in the first half of the year, the commission said. It also stressed that African swine fever outbreaks remain a risk for production across the EU.
Consumption has been stable so far in 2024, but without the usual increase in the summer months. As a result, EU per capita consumption is expected to decrease by a further 0.4% year-on-year to 30.9 kg this year, but is predicted to stabilise at that level next year.
Higher EU prices have hit the EU’s export competitiveness – in the first half of 2024, EU exports recorded a decline of 6% year-on-year, mainly to China (-27%), while exports to the UK were down 3% year on year.
The EU produced a ‘provisional’ 20.6 million tonnes of pigmeat in 2023, the lowest level in the last 15 years and 11.8% below the 2021 peak.
Spain at 4.9mt, 2.2% down year-on-year, was the biggest producer, followed by Germany, at 4.2mt (-6.3%) the seventh successive year of decline. The Netherlands (-13.1%) and Denmark (-19.9%) also suffered big declines.