AHDB analysts are predicting that shoppers could make a shift to cheaper red meat options, over the traditional turkey, this festive season.
Following warnings that there could be a shortage of Christmas turkeys, due to the country’s largest ever bird flu outbreak, plus, with the cost-of-living crisis forcing buyers to look at cheaper meat options, AHDB analysts propose that there could be a boost to red meat sales – especially pork.
“After two years of unpredictable Christmas periods, we had hoped this year would be about treating and huge celebrations,” said Kim Heath, AHDB senior retail insight manager. “But the challenging economic situation means the cost-of-living crisis makes Christmas 2022 just as unpredictable as a Covid Christmas.
“We are likely to see a shift to cheaper roasting joints, benefiting pork,” she continued. “But, with a potential shortage of turkeys, there is an opportunity for people to trade up to beef and lamb for consumers who want a showstopping centre piece, especially if they can have more people round the dinner table this year.”
With that, frozen meat and dairy-based dessert sales could increase, as people watch their budgets. Analysts predict that ‘standard and value brands are looking likely to steal the market share’ this festive season.
Additionally, ‘with more families getting together this year, following several years of restrictions and uncertainty due to Covid, larger roasting joints could benefit with many switching back to bigger sizes to feed more people on Christmas day’.
Ms Heath added: “Despite the economic situation this year, we can safely predict that Christmas will still see significant uplifts compared to the rest of the year. However, a shopping basket may look different to previous years to cope with budgetary restraints.
“It needs to be remembered that the fundamentals of a Christmas shop will remain due to tradition, but small tweaks may be made. With more shoppers looking to reduce their spend, tactical support in-store is going to be essential for the meat and dairy categories.”