Global farmgate cattle and pig prices have reached a record high, while levels in the lamb market are falling below those seen in early 2021 and 2022, according to the latest market commentary from Quality Meat Scotland (QMS).
Forecasts also indicate instability in supply and demand within the global red meat market in 2023, with increased trade flows required to bring markets back towards balance.
Pork
Forecasts for global pork output show the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) predictions at a 0.3% increase, reaching 114.1m. This would see the recovery from African Swine Fever in China and South East Asia continue, taking production almost 20% above its 2020-low. Consumption growth is predicted to surpass this, leading to a slight increase in global imports.
China is looking set to continue as a significant driver of global pork market conditions with a 48% share of world production, over half of global consumption and 21% of imports. However, uncertainty remains around the outlook in China, with the volatility of the market seen in recent years continuing into 2023. Pork prices in the country doubled between April and October 2022, but then swiftly declined by 35% between November and late January. A rebound in imports has contributed to the change in market conditions, with monthly volumes picking up and managing to show year-on-year growth in December.
In other regions, forecasters predict rises in pork production for Brazil, Japan, Mexico, the USA and the Philippines in 2023, in contrast to declines in Canada, South Korea, the EU and the UK. Increases in consumption and imports are predicted, however, due to pork’s competitive pricing amidst the rising cost of living.
Iain Macdonald, QMS market intelligence manager, said: “Although China has a stronger foothold on global import demand than before the African Swine Fever Crisis, imports across all other countries are set to be 8% higher this year than in 2018, highlighting that significant opportunities will lie elsewhere.”
Iain Macdonald, QMS market intelligence manager
Beef
USDA’s warning of a 0.3% reduction in global production of beef in 2023 contrasts with the projected 17% increase in Australia and expectations of 2-3% growth for Brazil, Mexico and China, along with a 1% rise in the UK.
The gains expected from these regions are in contrast with the USA’s predicted 6.5% fall in output, as well as smaller reductions in Argentina, New Zealand, Canada, Japan and the EU.
Mr Macdonald said: “Imports are set to reach 18% of global consumption in 2023, up from 17.7% in 2022 and well above the 16.1% level seen in the pre-pandemic year of 2019. The combination of a relatively tight global beef market and increased trade points to firm beef prices.
Lamb
Mr Macdonald reported that UK lamb production is predicted to rise this year. He added: “At EU level, the EU Commission has forecast a slight uplift in production for 2023 but, with consumption projected to rise by 1%, a 4% lift in imports is modelled, and this should help support UK exports.”
The New Zealand lamb crop is estimated to have decreased by 2.6%, and export volumes fell by 2.6% in Q4 2022 compared to the same period in 2021. Moving through to this year, New Zealand lamb prices continues to look competitive, with farmgate prices around 20% lower than in early 2022.
Journalist. Spent 15 years in Primary Education before a career change to journalism. Enjoys swimming, reading, creative writing and spending time with family at home and abroad.
